Source : http://silveristhenew.com/2013/11/14/vulnerable-countries-indonesia-turkey-india/
Friday, 15 November 2013
Jim Rogers :Vulnerable Countries Indonesia, Turkey & India
Source : http://silveristhenew.com/2013/11/14/vulnerable-countries-indonesia-turkey-india/
Thursday, 14 November 2013
Buffett gets a boost with DISH
DISH Network Corp (NASDAQ:DISH). The stock rose +4.91 to $49.77 after presenting a great Q3 performance. Billionaire Julian Robertson holds purchased 443,000 shares (2.39% of his fund), acquired for $39.38 each last quarter. Another important investor with a position in DISH is Warren Buffett, who holds 547,000 shares, also acquired during last quarter for $39.38. The position represents 0.03% in Buffett’s portfolio.
Soros Loses on Rackspace and THM
The stock with a major gain today is InterOil Corporation (NYSE:IOC). The energy company surged +21.44% ($81.42) after reporting solid Q3 earnings. Billionaire John Paulson holds 1.7 million IOC shares, representing 0.85% of his fund. The shareholder paid an average price of $66.64 per asset.
The second company with a great performance today is Western Refining, Inc. (NYSE:WNR). The petroleum firm is up +9.76% and now trading at $36.33 after an upgrade to a “buy” rating by Goldman Sachs. Last quarter, George Soros bought 310,000 shares (0.09% of his portfolio) for $30.87 each.
Sources: http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/11/buffett-wins-dish-soros-loses-rackspace-thm/
Marc Faber : World dangerously awash in credit
If we take total credit as a percentage of the economies of the most advanced economies then total credit as a percent of the economies is now thirty percent higher than in 2007 when the last crisis occurred and say in China credit as a percent of the economy has been growing over the last four and half years by fifty percent , this is unprecedented it is a gigantic credit bubble
Source: http://www.bnn.ca/News/2013/11/13/More-global-credit-now-then-before-the-financial-crisis-Faber.aspx
Jim Rogers: Change is Coming, so know to think against the crowd, the crowd is nearly always wrong
-“…no matter what we all know today, it’s not going to be true in 10 or 15 years…”
-“Eventually the markets will just say, ‘We’re not going to play this game anymore’, and we’ll have a serious collapse.”
-“We’ve got to stop this, this is going to be bad."
-“Eventually they will try to cut [QE], it will finally cause the collapse, at that point we will have a big change, because they will throw them out, whether it’s the politicians or the central bankers or whoever.”
-“I’ve owned gold for many years, I’ve never sold any gold and I can’t imagine I ever will sell gold in my life because it is somewhat of an insurance policy.”
-“Everybody should own some precious metals as an insurance policy. So if they don’t have any right now, I would urge them to go buy something.”
Source : http://www.birchgold.com/jim-rogers-interview-qe-currency-gold-inflation/
Wednesday, 13 November 2013
Jim Rogers : This is Absolute Insanity , we are all going to pay the price for this madness
"it's going to dry up. And when it dries up, we're all going to pay the price for this madness.
Source: http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Rogers-Fed-absolute-insanity/2013/11/11/id/536050
George Soros Gets a Boost with ViroPharma Buy, Takes a Hit with Denbury
Today’s top gainer is biotechnology company ViroPharma Inc (NASDAQ:VPHM). The stock surprisingly shot up +25.50% to $49.42. According to Bloomberg, this is the result of health company Shire Plc (NYSE:SHP) reaching an agreement to buy ViroPharma for $4.2 billion. Billionaire George Soros acquired 50,000 shares (0.02% of his fund) for $26.29 each last quarter.
Monday, 11 November 2013
Marc Faber: China could spark bigger crisis than 2008.
- An alarming credit boom in China could trigger a crisis that would make 2008 look mild in comparison
- China, in particular, has seen credit as a percentage of the economy jump 50% in the last four and a half years
- China has the “fastest credit growth you can image in the whole of Asia.”
- Faber warns that China isn’t the only problem area. Other Asian countries are also seeing big jumps in household debt.
Soros and Icahn Close Out the Week On Top
Today’s top gainer is Magnum Hunter Resources Corporation (NYSE:MHR). The energy company shot up +11.17% ($7.12) after presenting a better-than-expected Q3 earnings report. Billionaire George Soros acquired 250,000 shares for $3.27 last quarter. This position represents 0.01% of Soros’ portfolio.
The second company in our daily gainers list is The Gap, Inc. (NYSE:GPS). The clothing firm rose +8.68 to $41.03 on the heels of a report of solid Q3 earnings. Edward Lampert holds 10.3 million shares, which represent 14.47% of his fund, purchased at $19.49. Ray Dalio owns 82,000 shares (0.03% of his fund). The shareholder paid $33.56 per asset.
Last but not least is Icahn Enterprises L.P. (NASDAQ:IEP). The financial stock is up +8.69%, now trading at $119.85. Billionaire Carl Icahn holds 99.2 million shares, representing 33.56% of his fund. Each asset cost him $64.57.
Saturday, 9 November 2013
Peter Schiff: Janet Yellen's Mission Impossible
Unlike just about every other economist, I knew that the Fed would not taper in September because the economy is still fundamentally addicted to stimulus. The signs of recovery that have caused investors and politicians to bubble with enthusiasm are just QE in disguise. Take away the QE and the economy would likely tilt back into an even more severe recession than the one we experienced before QE1 was launched
Given the Fed's failure to initiate a tapering campaign in recent months (when it was highly expected) it is surprising that most people still believe that it will pull the trigger in the first quarter of 2014. But if the Fed could not take action in September, with Ben Bernanke at the helm and the nation as yet untraumatized by the debt ceiling drama and Obamacare, why should we expect tougher treatment from Janet Yellen? This is particularly true when you consider Yellen's reputation as an extreme dove and the uninspiring economic data that has come in recent months.
Rather than explicitly describing the possibility of a reduction of asset purchases, recent Fed statements have merely said that policy would be "adjusted" according to incoming data. It has never said what direction that adjustment may take. Yet somehow the market has concluded that an imminent reduction is the only possibility. But the opposite conclusion is more likely. Recession avoidance is really the Fed's only concern and it will always come down on the side of accommodation. Therefore an expectation for a 2014 taper is just wishful thinking.
But that does not mean that QE will go on forever. It will come to an end, but not because the Fed wants it to, but because the currency markets give it no choice. A dollar crisis would ultimately force the Fed's hand, and the longer the Fed succeeds in postponing the inevitable, the more damage its policy mistakes will inflict on our economy.
Yellen's second task will be equally impossible. Since the QE campaign began in 2010 the Fed has more than quadrupled the amount of bonds that it holds on its balance sheet,to more than $4 trillion of Treasury and mortgage-backed bonds. To accumulate this massive cache, the Fed has become by far the largest buyer in both markets. Its purchases have pushed up the prices of those bonds and have kept long term interest rates low for both consumers and businesses.
When the QE was first launched, Ben Bernanke tamped down fears of the program by saying the Fed would one day sell the bonds that it was buying. But as the Fed's balance sheet ballooned, many in the market began fearing that the unwinding of these trades would crush the market for Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Bernanke soon allayed these fears by saying that the Fed would not actively sell, but would simply allow bonds to mature. But this is just a convenient fiction.
If stock or real estate prices were to enter into bubble territory (which I believe has already happened), or if inflation were ever to surge past the Fed's low target range (which I believe is certain to happen), then the Fed would have to sell bonds to get in front of these trends.
Through Operation Twist, the Fed has already swapped a very large portion of its short-term bonds for long-term bonds. The slow process of waiting for bonds to mature is unlikely to slow down asset bubbles or inflation. The argument also does not account for the fact that the Treasury will have to sell new bonds in order to retire the principle on the maturing bonds. Since the Fed is the primary buyer of Treasury bonds, the Fed would have to add to its balance sheet when it's trying to shrink it. Such a cycle is just a debt rollover that leaves the size of the Fed's balance sheet unchanged.
Unless other buyers of Treasuries or MBS can be found to replace the Fed's prodigious buying, the Fed will remain the only game in town. Given these realities, how can we possibly expect Janet Yellen to actually diminish the amount of assets the Fed holds? She won't be able to do it and any expectations to the contrary are pure fantasy.
So we should not be asking when Ms. Yellen will begin withdrawing stimulus and shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. Instead we should be asking how the markets will react when she runs out of excuses for delaying the taper, or ultimately decides to expand QE rather than contract it.
Jim Rogers: There`s Another Slowdown Coming
In 2001-2002 we had a problem and then we got over it, the government printed a lot of money. By 2007-2008 and 2009 we had our next one, which is the way it always works. It was worse because the debt was so, so, so much higher.
Now you wait till the next one. There is a next one coming despite what they keep telling us. And when the next one comes, the debt is going up by staggering amounts, not just in the U.S. but worldwide. So when the next one comes it will be even worse. Let`s hope the world survives that one.
Yellen: No Clue About The Real World
Friday, 8 November 2013
Soros gives $1 Million to Syria Humanitarian Aid
Soros announced the pledge to the International Rescue Committee on Wednesday night after receiving its Freedom Award in recognition of his lifelong support for human rights and an open society.
Soros said people are starving and will soon be freezing in Syria as winter arrives and malnutrition among children is increasing.
"This situation has arisen because both the government and the rebels use the denial of humanitarian aid as a tool of war," Soros said.
While prospects for a political settlement have improved following a U.S.-Russian agreement, he said "conditions for the civilian population are deteriorating because both sides continue to interfere with aid delivery in order to improve their negotiating positions in the coming peace talks."
A Look At Warren Buffett’s ‘Favorite Metric’: Rail Traffic
Since intermodal traffic is the transportation of finished goods, and because carload traffic can be a wider variety of works in progress, intermodal is more favorable as an economic indicator.
Warren Buffett once stated on CNBC, when asked to identify the single most important economic statistic he would choose if he was stranded on a desert island for a month and could only get one set of economic numbers, that his favorite indicator was freight traffic.
In any case, this is an economic data series that is certainly worth tracking. Let’s look to the most recent numbers.
The AAR reports that intermodal rail volume for the week ending November 2 totaled 264,264 units. That is a 17.7% increase from the same week last year. We compare rail traffic year over year because the series is not seasonally adjusted and can be very volatile. Additionally, we’ll use long moving averages in our charts to better convey the trends. It’s notable that this Y/Y increase was especially high because the comparable week of 2012 was affected by Hurricane Sandy.
The 10-week moving average of intermodal rail traffic is up 6.0% year over year. That is the highest it’s been since March.
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